Chapter 8: Probability Basics
Probability Basics
Reason from possible outcomes instead of guessing from intuition.
AI teacher
Start the short explanation, then use the visual model and practice before returning to the workbook.
Voice: Browser voice
Workbook pages
Junior Maths Book 1 pages 143-150
Use probability language, scales, sample spaces and simple combined events.
AI explanation
The AI teacher places events on a probability scale, builds sample spaces in tables and uses fractions to describe favourable outcomes out of all equally likely outcomes.
- 1Probability ranges from 0 to 1.
- 20 means impossible and 1 means certain.
- 3A sample space lists all possible outcomes.
- 4For equally likely outcomes, probability is favourable outcomes divided by total outcomes.
Animated teaching
See the method
A probability scale marks impossible to certain, then a two-way sample-space grid fills with possible outcomes.
Why this method works
- A probability fraction compares the event to the entire outcome space.
- Sample spaces prevent missing or double-counting outcomes.
- Combined events can be organised with tables or tree-style reasoning.
Common mistakes
- Counting favourable outcomes but not total outcomes.
- Assuming outcomes are equally likely when they are not.
- Forgetting that probabilities cannot be greater than 1.
- Missing outcomes in a sample space.
Multiple methods
- Sample spaces can be listed, shown in a table or represented in a tree diagram.
- Probabilities can be written as fractions, decimals or percentages.
- Experimental probability can be compared with theoretical probability.
Worked examples
Sample space
A fair coin and a fair spinner labelled 1, 2, 3 are used. How many outcomes are possible?
Method: List pairs.
- 1.Coin outcomes: H, T.
- 2.Spinner outcomes: 1, 2, 3.
- 3.Each coin outcome pairs with each spinner outcome.
- 4.2 x 3 = 6.
Answer: 6 outcomes
Probability
A bag has 4 red, 3 blue and 5 green counters. Find P(green).
Method: Favourable outcomes over total outcomes.
- 1.There are 5 green counters.
- 2.Total counters = 4 + 3 + 5 = 12.
- 3.P(green) = 5/12.
Answer: 5/12
Interactive practice
Try before you look
Question 1
Which probability means certain?
Question 2
A fair dice is rolled. What is P(rolling an even number)?
Question 3
Why is a sample space useful?
Review prompt
Explain why listing outcomes can change a probability answer.
Write a two-sentence answer in your notebook before marking the workbook section complete.
Challenge question
Two fair coins are tossed. A student says P(one head and one tail) is 1/3 because the results are two heads, two tails, or mixed. Explain the error.
Hint: List HH, HT, TH and TT.